EOI: Consultancy for Desk Review on the Political Economy Analysis (PEA) of Social Protection Policy Implementation in Oyo, Sokoto, Benue, Abia States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja (Year 1) at ActionAid Nigeria

Purpose of the Assignment

• The purpose of this assignment is to undertake a comprehensive Desk Review on the Political Economy Analysis (PEA) of social protection systems in Oyo, Sokoto, Benue, Abia States and the FCT, Abuja, in order to generate evidence on the institutional, political, economic, governance, and financing dynamics that influence social protection policy design, prioritisation, financing, implementation, accountability, and outcomes.
• The findings will inform ESSPIN programme implementation, state-level Technical Working Groups, policy dialogue, advocacy initiatives, stakeholder engagement, and future social protection reforms at both state and national levels.

Objectives of the Baseline Political Economy Analysis

• Review existing social protection policies, legal frameworks, strategies, and programmes at national and state levels.
• Analyse institutional arrangements, mandates, coordination mechanisms, and governance structures responsible for social protection delivery.
• Examine financing mechanisms, budget allocations, funding flows, expenditure patterns, and fiscal sustainability related to social protection programmes.
• Identify key political actors, stakeholders, interest groups, and institutions influencing social protection policy design, prioritisation, financing, and implementation.
• Analyse power dynamics, incentives, interests, and relationships shaping decision-making processes within the social protection sector.
• Assess political, institutional, and economic factors influencing policy prioritisation, resource allocation, financing decisions, and programme implementation.
• Identify institutional, political, governance, financial, and economic barriers affecting effective implementation of social protection policies and programmes.
• Assess accountability challenges, coordination gaps, governance bottlenecks, and risks that undermine policy effectiveness and inclusiveness.
• Identify opportunities, reform entry points, potential champions, and institutional allies for strengthening social protection systems.
• Generate evidence-based recommendations to improve policy implementation, financing, accountability, coordination, and sustainability of social protection programmes.

Scope of Work: The consultant or consulting firm will undertake the following tasks:

• Participate in an inception and orientation meeting with the ESSPIN Programme Team.
• Develop and submit an inception report outlining methodology, analytical framework, work plan, and data sources.
• Develop analytical tools and frameworks for conducting the desk review on the Political Economy Analysis.
• Conduct a comprehensive desk review of: National and state social protection policies, laws, strategies, and programmes; Existing reports, studies, assessments, budget documents, and relevant literature; Institutional arrangements and coordination structures for social protection delivery.
• Map key institutions, Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), development partners, civil society actors, and coordination platforms involved in social protection implementation.
• Analyse financing structures, budget allocations, funding mechanisms, expenditure patterns, and fiscal sustainability of social protection systems.
• Assess political, institutional, economic, and governance factors influencing policy design, prioritisation, financing, and implementation.
• Identify stakeholders, power relations, incentives, competing interests, accountability mechanisms, and reform opportunities.
• Assess how fiscal realities, competing development priorities, and economic conditions influence social protection financing and sustainability.
• Develop a stakeholder influence and interest mapping matrix highlighting key actors, incentives, relationships, risks, and opportunities for engagement.
• Analyse institutional, political, financial, economic, and governance barriers affecting programme delivery.
• Identify opportunities for reform, advocacy, policy engagement, institutional strengthening, and coalition building.
• Identify potential reform champions, political allies, and institutional entry points for strengthening social protection financing and implementation.
• Produce state-specific Political Economy Analysis reports and an overall synthesis report of findings.
• Present findings and incorporate feedback from ActionAid Nigeria and relevant stakeholders.
• Submit final reports and policy recommendations.

Methodology:The assignment will adopt a desk-based Political Economy Analysis approach, drawing primarily on secondary data and documentary evidence.

The methodology is expected to include:

• Comprehensive desk review of relevant policies, laws, frameworks, budget documents, programme reports, and published literature.
• Review of national and state-level social protection strategies and implementation frameworks.
• Stakeholder mapping and institutional analysis.
• Political Economy Analysis using recognised analytical frameworks.
• Analysis of financing, budgeting, expenditure patterns, and fiscal sustainability.
• Review of governance, coordination, and accountability mechanisms.
• Analysis of political, institutional, and economic drivers of policy prioritisation and implementation.
• Comparative analysis across the five focal locations.
• Validation of findings through consultations with the ESSPIN Programme Team and selected stakeholders where necessary.
• The consultant is expected to propose a robust analytical framework and methodology in the inception report.

Key Deliverables: The consultant or consulting firm is expected to deliver:

• Inception Report detailing methodology, analytical framework, work plan, and data sources.
• Desk Review Summary Report highlighting key findings from the literature review.
• Stakeholder Mapping and Political Economy Matrix identifying key institutions, actors, incentives, interests, influence levels, and reform opportunities.
• Draft Year 1 Baseline State-Specific Political Economy Analysis (PEA) Reports for Oyo, Sokoto, Benue, Abia States and the FCT.
• Draft Synthesis Report consolidating findings across the five focal locations and highlighting cross-cutting issues, reform priorities, and comparative insights.
• Final Year 1 Baseline State-Specific PEA Reports incorporating ActionAid Nigeria and stakeholder feedback.
• Final Synthesis Report establishing a benchmark for the planned Year 3 follow-up Political Economy Analysis.
• Clean electronic copies of all datasets, reference materials, analytical frameworks, and source documents used in the analysis.
• Executive Summary and Policy Brief highlighting key findings, recommendations, reform opportunities, and advocacy priorities.
• PowerPoint Presentation summarising major findings and recommendations.

Expected Use of Findings: The findings from the Political Economy Analysis will:

• Inform State Social Protection Technical Working Groups (TWGs).
• Support evidence-based policy dialogue and engagement with government institutions.
• Strengthen advocacy efforts aimed at improving social protection financing and implementation.
• Identify reform opportunities and institutional entry points for strengthening accountability and coordination.
• Contribute to building more inclusive, accountable, and sustainable social protection systems.
• Establish a baseline for measuring progress and changes during the planned Year 3 Political Economy Analysis.
• Duration of the Assignment: The consultancy is expected to be completed within twenty-one (21) working days from the date of contract signing, covering inception, desk review, analysis, report writing, validation, revisions, and final submission.

Required Qualifications and Experience

• An Advanced Degree in Political Science, Public Policy, Development Studies, Economics, Governance, Social Policy, Sociology, or a related field (Master's Degree or higher preferred).
• At least ten (10) years of demonstrated experience conducting Political Economy Analysis, governance assessments, policy reviews, institutional assessments, or related assignments.
• Strong understanding of Nigeria's social protection landscape, public sector governance systems, political processes, and fiscal environment.
• Proven experience in conducting desk reviews, policy analysis, stakeholder mapping, and institutional assessments.
• Demonstrated experience working with government institutions, development partners, civil society organisations, and donor-funded programmes.
• Excellent analytical, facilitation, report-writing, and communication skills.
• Strong knowledge of social protection financing, governance, public financial management, and accountability mechanisms.
• Proficiency in the use of analytical and reporting tools.
• Evidence of at least three similar assignments completed within the last three years.